Markets, Conflict, and the “24” Effect: Learning to Muddle Through

Published: March 2026

For those of us old enough to remember the TV series 24, each season followed a familiar pattern. A crisis would emerge, tensions would escalate, and just as it seemed the situation had been contained, another threat would quickly take its place. Resolution was always temporary, and the sense of underlying instability never fully disappeared.

Recent events in the Middle East have begun to feel somewhat similar.

Headlines have been dominated by escalating tensions, strong rhetoric from the United States, and an increasingly complex response from Iran and its regional proxies. At the same time, global powers have reacted in different ways, with some notably cautious about becoming directly involved.

Yet despite the intensity of the news flow, markets themselves have remained relatively contained. In part, this is because investors are becoming more accustomed to this type of environment. Oil prices, for example, have moved higher and stabilised around the $100 per barrel level – increasingly acting as a real-time barometer of geopolitical risk. In some respects, this price for oil now feels like the market’s way of signalling: “Oh look, another crisis is underway!”

Markets are increasingly conditioned to operate in an environment where events rarely resolve cleanly or quickly. Rather than sharp shocks followed by recovery, we’re seeing a pattern of ongoing tension, intermittent escalation, and periods of uneasy stability. This is a world that is learning to “muddle through”.

History offers some perspective here. Geopolitical conflicts rarely follow a straight path to resolution, but instead they seem to evolve into prolonged and complex situations, where outcomes remain uncertain and progress is uneven. Markets tend to adjust not to the event itself, but to the persistence of uncertainty over time.

From an investment perspective, several observations stand out.

Political messaging and market reality are often very different. While there’s been strong rhetoric suggesting decisive outcomes, the situation on the ground remains fluid. This reinforces the importance of looking beyond short-term headlines and focusing on underlying trends.

The response from global powers has also been notable. The reluctance of several European countries to become directly involved highlights a more cautious and selective approach to international alignment. This doesn’t suggest a breakdown in alliances, but it does point to a world becoming more fragmented, with countries increasingly acting in their own economic and political interests.

Perhaps most importantly, this environment reinforces the value of diversification. In a world where outcomes are less predictable and events can evolve over extended periods, relying too heavily on any single region, asset class, or market narrative becomes increasingly risky.

Encouragingly, portfolios have entered this period from a position of strength, having delivered solid performance in the lead-up to these events. This has helped provide resilience as markets adjust, with the focus remaining on maintaining balance and positioning portfolios to navigate a range of potential outcomes.

Looking ahead, a swift or definitive resolution appears unlikely. Instead, we should expect a continuation of the current pattern: periods of escalation, followed by temporary stabilisation, and further developments emerging over time.

Much like 24, there may be moments where it feels as though the immediate crisis has been contained, the threat neutralised, the situation brought back under control. But as viewers of the series will remember, that rarely marked the end of the story for super-agent Jack Bauer. More often, it simply set the stage for the next episode.

In today’s markets, maintaining discipline, perspective, and diversification remains the best way to navigate a world where the next episode is never too far away.

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Disclaimer

Opinions constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without warning.  The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment.  Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The information in this article is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any other investment, nor does it constitute a personal recommendation.

The information contained within this blog is based on our understanding of legislation, whether proposed or in force, and market practice at the time of writing.  Levels, bases and reliefs from taxation may be subject to change.