Author: Geoff Cooper
Head of Investment Management, Chartered Wealth Manager - Chair of the Investment Committee
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Published: August 2025
Recent high-level diplomacy has once again put Ukraine and Russia at the centre of global markets’ attention. On Friday 15 August, President Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, a summit that ended without agreement on a ceasefire. Trump suggested Ukraine might have to make territorial concessions such as Crimea or the Donbas in order to reach peace, an idea that Kyiv firmly rejected. Many observers noted the optics played into Moscow’s hands, offering Putin a public relations boost without altering the military reality.
This was followed a few days later by a broader meeting in Washington between Trump, President Zelensky, and several European leaders. The tone was more constructive: discussions covered a substantial US arms package worth around $90 billion, including aircraft, air-defence systems and drones, alongside the possibility of new security guarantees. Reports suggest these could take the shape of “Article 5-style” commitments. Article 5 of the NATO treaty is the principle of collective defence: an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all. While what is being proposed is unlikely to be full NATO membership, it would still mark a significant step in US engagement and Ukraine’s long-term security.
From an investment perspective, this matters because the balance between escalation and stability influences everything from energy prices to defence spending. A credible security framework could reduce volatility in energy markets over time, though no immediate relief is likely while fighting continues. On the other hand, Europe and the UK appear committed to sustained increases in defence budgets, underlining the structural case for aerospace and defence industries.
For inflation and broader markets, the implications are mixed. Defence procurement adds fiscal pressure, but the larger inflation risk comes from renewed disruption in energy or commodities should negotiations falter. A forced Ukrainian concession could embolden further Russian aggression and reignite volatility across global markets.
In such an environment, diversification and exposure to “safe havens” remain crucial. Investors often look to government bonds, gold, infrastructure and alternative assets during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, as these can provide returns uncorrelated to equity markets. These holdings are already part of our strategies, acting as ballast when risk assets face turbulence.
From battlefields to boardrooms, these geopolitical shifts ultimately shape how companies plan, how governments spend, and how investors allocate capital, which is why we continue to position portfolios with resilience and diversification in mind.
We are always here to help you with any questions or concerns you may have. If you would like to talk to one of our Chartered Financial Planners, please contact us on 01223 233331 or email info@mmwealth.co.uk.
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Opinions constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without warning. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The information in this article is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any other investment, nor does it constitute a personal recommendation.
The information contained within this blog is based on our understanding of legislation, whether proposed or in force, and market practice at the time of writing. Levels, bases and reliefs from taxation may be subject to change.
